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Quakes in the Nankai Trough, however, have varied greatly in frequency in the past, striking the region once in a few decades at times and once every few centuries at other times. The method that was described in the minutes as the basis for the 20 percent figure is applied to calculate probabilities for all the other earthquakes predicted in Japan. Sponsored contents planned and edited by JT Media Enterprise Division. But what exactly is a Nankai Trough megaquake? There are opinions that the time-predictable model (used in the method) is not valid at least in this subcommittee, so I’m not convinced about disclosing the figure.”. This group says that there is a possibility that it may lead to a method to evaluate whether the next Nankai Trough earthquake is approaching or not. The reports stated that if a 9.0 earthquake occurred on the Nankai Trough, the effects would be very serious. If the evaluation committee determines that the initial quake has triggered a slip along half of the fault where a major follow-up quake is expected—a so-called han-ware event—government disaster guidelines will call for a cautionary response, including evacuation for one week beyond the lifting of tsunami warnings for residents of coastal and riverside areas where it is deemed there would be insufficient time to flee a tsunami caused by a subsequent disaster. The minutes included numerous comments by members showing negative reactions to presenting probabilities. I made an information disclosure request to the education ministry and, after about a month, obtained the minutes, which revealed numerous surprising comments that had never been disclosed. In the worst case, deaths are forecast to exceed 230,000, which would be more than 10 times greater than the toll from the Great East Japan Earthquake of March 2011. Even rainfall forecasts didn’t prove right with high probability until real-time data on changes in the atmosphere became available. It would cost as much as 40 per cent of Japan’s gross … Earthquake predictions are first presented by seismologists at a subcommittee on ocean-trench earthquakes to be approved by the Earthquake Research Committee, a part of the government’s Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion headed by the minister of education, culture, sports, science and technology. Working on Effective … After all, true earthquake prediction requires determining the time, location, and magnitude of a quake in advance. Stuck in Japan amid pandemic, trio of South American artists find fame and sisterhood, World's oldest person marks 118th birthday in Fukuoka. According to a government projection, the death toll from a magnitude-9.0 or stronger quake and tsunami occurring along the depression could be as high as 320,000. If you're not sure how to activate it, please refer to this site: Japan's seismologists and policymakers at odds over quake science, Nankai quake numbers skewed to prioritize budgets over science. Among those concerns, three types of negative attitudes toward tsunami risk preparedness were perceived: overly pessimistic, overly optimistic, and overly dependent. With the ultimate aim of being fully prepared for this calamity, the platform enables local governments, medical institutions, private corporations and NGOs to … The recent magnitude 7.3 earthquake on the southern island of Kyushu, which killed at least 49 people and destroyed thousands of homes, is a reminder that Japan remains exposed to frequent natural disasters. These are generally referred to as Nankai Trough Earthquakes. Along the Nankai Trough, huge earthquakes have occurred on a 90 to 150 year cycle, causing great damage to a wide area of west Japan. A misunderstanding? But we should mention somewhere that the figure can be 20 percent if we use a different method.”. During subcommittee meetings in 2012, seismologists called for the need to use consistent calculation methods to ensure the credibility of predictions. Hence, GSJ, AIST survived the “period of nightmare” [1] of the Type 2 Basic Research. These unanticipated words — inflated, special treatment and ulterior motives — puzzled me even more and prompted me to investigate further. The Ring of Fire stretches all the way up from the bottom of South America's western coast, along the … This is the first in a series of investigative reports from the Chunichi Shimbun about how figures for the probability of a Nankai Trough earthquake were manipulated for a government expert panel report released in February 2018. The Japan Times LTD. All rights reserved. Redacted passages from minutes for the government’s Earthquake Research Committee meeting on a possible Nankai Trough quake. Why did this time-predictable model end up predicting a probability as high as 80 percent for the Nankai Trough earthquake? “It has various problems,” “It doesn’t mean much,” “I have no idea why we are presenting this,” “We shouldn’t present this,” “We can’t do this, no matter what,” and so on. Estimated Damage 4 3. It’s based on upheavals of (a stratum at) Murotsu Port, northwest of Cape Muroto in Kochi Prefecture, which have been recorded three times between 1707 and 1945,” Sagiya said. The Nankai Trough is a 700-kilometer-long sea-bottom depression that runs about 100 km off the southern coast from Shizuoka Prefecture to the Shikoku region. The last Nankai was in 1946 but as it turns out, this earthquake was quite small, which means there is still a great deal of stress left to be released. So far, researchers have mainly looked for anomalies after the fact. Given this likelihood, estimating the resulting tsunami in real time is desirable. The part southwest of Tokyo, underlying the coast around Suruga Bay, is called the Tokai segment. The period of “within 30 years” used to calculate a probability seems long from the viewpoint of human lives but is short in terms of seismic cycles. The northeasternmost part of the megathrust, segment E, has not ruptured since 1854. The Earthquake Research Committee announced in May 2013 that the chance of a quake of magnitude 8 or more happening in the Nankai Trough within 30 years was between 60 and 70 percent. It was a few days before Feb. 9, 2018, when the Earthquake Research Committee, the government’s expert panel, announced it had revised its projections about the chance of a major earthquake in the Nankai Trough, off Japan’s Pacific coast, in the next 30 years from about 70 percent to between 70 and 80 percent. One of the members said: “If we calculate the probability now using the method we’ve been using all along, we will come up with 70 or 80 percent for the next 30 years. the observation and research of groundwater for earthquake prediction was deemed to be the social responsibility of GSJ, AIST. 1 nuclear power plant in March 2011. Estimates say there is a 70-80% chance that the Nankai will occur within the next 30 years. After talking with Sagiya, I thought the editor made the right call. The Nankai Trough Earthquakes, megathrust earthquakes with a magnitude of around 8 or more along the Nankai Trough, has occurred repeatedly with a repetition interval of roughly 100-150 year, while the plate boundary beneath the Tokai region has not experienced large seismic slip since the 1854 Ansei Earthquake (Figure 1). “The probability figure has a big impact. The “time-predictable model” apparently refers to a special method used only for calculating the probability of the Nankai Trough quake — something Sagiya described as a method that allowed figures to be inflated and given special treatment. Experts believe there is a 70% to 80% probability of a severe Nankai Trough earthquake within 30 years. But it was clear why only the estimate for the Nankai Trough quake was exceptionally high — a different calculation method seismologists believed wasn’t credible was applied. The following video shows the daily … A short story was published on the day of the announcement, saying that the government’s earthquake committee “slightly revised upward from last year the probability of a magnitude 8 to 9 earthquake hitting the Nankai Trough within 30 years to between 70 and 80 percent.”, I was feeling uneasy, thinking there must be something more to the story, remembering Sagiya’s comments just before he hung up the phone: “I’m sure the discussions made in the subcommittee meetings are all recorded in the minutes.”. If the Nankai Trough Earthquake were to occur as predicted, the Mie prefecture would experience an earthquake over 94.7% of the total area (5777 km 2) with a JMA seismic intensity of 6 or greater and a tsunami affecting 4.9% of the total area (283 km 2) . In the worst-case scenario, deaths from such a disaster could exceed 230,000. disaster a 20 – 60% fall in production). Yasuhiro UMEDA, Kunihiro SHIGETOMI, Kensuke ONOUE, Teruyuki ASADA, Yoshinobu HOSO, Kazuo KONDO, Manabu HASHIMOTO, Shozo KIMURA, Kazuo KAWATANI, Makoto OMURA, On the Well Water Decreases Preceded the Nankai Earthquake-For the Prediction of Next Nankai Earthquake-, Zisin (Journal of the Seismological Society of Japan. We studied the long-period ground motions in the Osaka sedimentary basin, Japan, which contains a 1- to 3-km thickness of sediments and is the site of many buildings or construction structures with long-natural period. Both events were great earthquakes … It is utterly surprising to see that there had been discussions as far back as eight years ago on the credibility of the figures. In many cases of earthquakes in subduction zones, tsunamis and flooding occur after the earthquake. Uncertainty in the ground motion prediction depends on how well we know about the … A “Nankai Trough quake” is a large-scale earthquake with its epicenter at the meeting point of these plates. The quake itself would likely kill thousands, and a series of 34-meter (112-foot) tall … But no explanations appear to have been given on the calculation method, let alone the time-predictable model. As a result, there is a strong likelihood the fault-line will not wait the usual 100 years, and the next earthquake can be expected in the first half of this century. I was perplexed by the comments. It is meant to determine the probability by calculating the average frequency of occurrence from past data on quakes. A Japanese Government panel said on Tuesday, February 26, the risk of a major earthquake in the near future is high. New technology for earthquake prediction: Nankai Trough, Japan Dr Yusuke Yokota and colleagues at the University of Tokyo are developing so-called GNSS-A technology, which combines satellite positioning technology (GNSS) and acoustic positioning technology (A) to create precise observations of the seafloor position. 00:01:31:17 DR MARYANNE DEMASI: Just 900km south of Japan's island of Honshu, the Nankai Trough lies along the Pacific Ring of Fire, where 90% of the world's earthquakes occur. In the Ansei Tōkai quake in 1854, another huge quake struck just 32 hours later, while the 1946 Nankai earthquake is thought to have been primed in part by the 1944 Tōnankai earthquake, all resulting in great destruction. In the past, the Nankai Trough has experienced repeated quakes at regular 100- to 150-year intervals. Four phases and seven key tasks “Life-saving” phase Task 1 Disseminate timely information, and fully support evacuation from mega tsunami’s landfall in short timeframe. In Japan, the probability of a Tokai, Tonankai, and Nankai earthquake occurring in the early 21st century is high. Problematic? To alleviate these negative attitudes, this study … Damage predictions in Mie Prefecture, if the Nankai Trough Earthquake occurs, will be approximately 9,200 deaths caused by the earthquake and 42,000 deaths caused by tsunami. The press release handed out at the time of the 2013 announcement does not mention the 20 percent figure at all in its summary referred to as the “main text.” Despite all the heated debate on the issue, it is buried in the latter part of the bulky document, as if to deliberately make it inconspicuous. On top of that, there was a hidden agenda explaining why some people were opposed to using a consistent method nationwide. ccording to estimates of damages reviewed in May 2019 by the government’s Central Disaster Management Council, the number of deaths and missing persons if the … “A different method to calculate the prediction was used just for the Nankai Trough quake. We simulated the broadband ground motions likely to be produced by the hypothetical Nankai earthquake: the earthquake expected to give rise to the most severe long-period … The Japan Meteorological Agency has contingency plans whereby, if a quake measuring 6.8 or higher in magnitude occurs along the Nankai Trough, or if abnormal changes are observed along the plate boundary, it will issue an extraordinary announcement and establish an evaluation committee to assess the likelihood of a subsequent megaquake. After that … Suga expected to declare second emergency for Tokyo area. Despite the uncertainty of when such an earthquake will occur, local authorities are already taking action to prepare … The last Tonankai and Nankai earthquakes occurred in 1944 and 1946 respectively. “Do you know how the probability of the Nankai Trough quake is calculated? Minutes of the subcommittee’s meetings held between 2012 and 2013 — obtained by the Chunichi Shimbun — showed that although the specific names of those who made the remarks were blacked out, almost all of the members expressed doubt over the calculation method for the chance of the Nankai Trough quake occurring within the next 30 years. A future great earthquake involving rupture along this and possibly other segments has been proposed as a major risk for the southern coast of Honshu. Osaka, is one of the mega-cities in Japan, has repeatedly suffered from earthquake disasters due to … We shouldn’t call that science. Up until 2012, the probability for such a quake was said to be around 60 to 70 percent. Then Sagiya said something even more shocking. “But how can you get (the probability rate) only by how much the land rose in the past? “The figures are inflated because of special treatment and ulterior motives.”. So it’s totally understandable that people want to rely on it, like they rely on the probability of rain, which is familiar and easy to understand. Long-period strong motions simulation is performed for crustal structure model that includes 3D structures of the subducting Philippine Sea plate and the Osaka sedimentary basin. He has predicted that the catastrophic tremor in question would take place in Japan, the region of Nankai Trough near the Pacific coast, exactly at (34.34°N, 137.55°K) geographic coordinate. The Tokai segment last ruptured in 1854, and before that in 1707. Along the Nankai Trough, megathrust earthquakes with a magnitude 8 or more occur repeatedly. League chairman urges Samurai Blue hopefuls to go to Europe, JPMorgan says bitcoin could surge to $146,000 in long term, As pandemic persists, Asia's hot spots simmer on, Directory of who’s who in the world of business in Japan. This is a complete misunderstanding. So why did they release the figures? The stakeholder losses can be … The Great East Japan … disaster response Predicted maximum seismic intensities from a Nankai Trough megaquake from 7, the strongest shaking on the scale, down to 3 and below. “It’s alright if the actual level of danger is the same as the predicted figure. “Personally, I think it is extremely misleading,” he said. Tokai Earthquake History . Numerical experiments demonstrate that (1) the tsunami wave source is estimated fairly well using … Translated and edited by Nippon.com. While the government estimates there is a 70 to 80 percent chance of a magnitude 8 to 9 quake occurring along the Nankai Trough within the next 30 years, the survey underscores the increasing difficulty of precisely predicting the timing, location and strength of imminent quakes, based on observational data. Experts believe there is a 70% to 80% probability of a severe Nankai Trough earthquake within 30 years. “The probability for the Nankai Trough quake came out high because the Nankai Trough quake is getting special treatment,” he said. The 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and following predictions of a Nankai megathrust earthquake have aroused great concerns on tsunami risks among the Japanese people. First, to get an expert comment on the revision, I called Takeshi Sagiya, a seismologist and a professor at Nagoya University, expecting to hear him sound the alarm on disaster preparedness. Nankai earthquake. “If they used the same method as for other regions, the figure would drop to about 20 percent. Ozawa received the science journalist award, presented by the Japanese Association of Science & Technology Journalists in June, for this series published between October and December 2019. After a year of anxiety, what can we expect from the Year of the Ox in 2021? The Nankai Trough is an ocean-floor trench which runs underneath the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Japan from Shizuoka to Kyūshū, where the Philippine Sea Plate sinks below the Eurasian Plate. AMDA has established a comprehensive counter-disaster scheme, “AMDA Platform for Nankai Trough Earthquake Disaster Strategy” to prepare for this foreseen crisis. Fuji News Network Overview of Nankai Trough Mega Earthquake Operation Plan. But it never changed.”. The 70 percent figure for the Nankai Trough quake was set to be significantly lowered. Before calling Sagiya, I called the head office of the Chunichi Shimbun newspaper and an editor in charge said it would be better not to play up the news because readers would overreact to the figure. I obtained the information on the revised figure from a source and began coming up with story angles such as whether disaster prevention measures were sufficient and how much damage a huge quake in the Tokai region could cause. A Disaster to Dwarf 3/11? I wonder how many researchers actually think the figure is reliable. 230,000 deaths from … The hazard maps they had drawn up predicted that big earthquakes would strike in one of three zones to the south of the country – Tokai, Tanankai, and Nankai. North Korea's Kim admits economic missteps as rare party congress opens, Hong Kong arrests dozens, including U.S. citizen, under security law, J. Key Words: Ground motion prediction, Nankai and Tonankai earthquakes, Kanto earthquakes, Off Boso Peninsula earthquake, variability analysis INTRODUCTION Ground motion prediction is one of the most important issues to be tackled in order to assure seismic design against earthquakes that might come near future. More than 70 years have passed since the previous such quake in this region, which sees a major shake every 100 to 150 years. Moreover, by reading the minutes, it became clear that seismologists were skeptical about calculating probabilities in the first place. The inundation depth is in ranging from 0.5 – Island, Japan, based on 18.0 m. When the inundation map results were overlaid with population map at the same location by using GIS technique, tsunami hazard map was estimated by showing the number of stakeholder. But that’s not the case. The red dots represent firms whose production will plummet below 40% of their production capacity before the earthquake, while the orange dots represent firms whose production will plunge into the 40 – 80% range (i.e. Scientists are predicting that the earthquake is due “in the not-too-distant future”, based on historical rough calculations. 1). Shortly after the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake, new reports were released which indicated the significant likelihood of another magnitude 9 earthquake occurring elsewhere in Japan, this time on the Nankai Trough. These figures do not include the … I think this is problematic.”. , but your browser needs Javascript to use consistent calculation methods to ensure the credibility of predictions the... Down to 3 and below Media Enterprise Division, segment E, not! Calculation method, let alone the time-predictable model end up predicting a probability as high as 80 percent the... 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